Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.
Note: this isn't a discussion about global warming, but the misuse of the "Consensus of the Experts" in discussions.
Here’s what Michael Crichton had to say about “scientific consensus” back in 2003 when he gave a lecture at the California Institute of Technology titled “Aliens Cause Global Warming”:
I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.
Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus.
In addition, let me remind you that the track record of the "consensus" is nothing to be proud of. Let’s review a few cases. In past centuries, the greatest killer of women was fever following childbirth. One woman in six died of this fever. In 1795, Alexander Gordon of Aberdeen suggested that the fevers were infectious processes, and he was able to cure them. The consensus said no.
In 1843, Oliver Wendell Holmes claimed puerperal fever was contagious, and presented compelling evidence. The consensus said no.
In 1849, Semmelweiss demonstrated that sanitary techniques virtually eliminated puerperal fever in hospitals under his management. The consensus said he was a Jew, ignored him, and dismissed him from his post. There was in fact no agreement on puerperal fever until the start of the twentieth century. Thus, the consensus took one hundred and twenty-five years to arrive at the right conclusion despite the efforts of the prominent “skeptics” around the world, skeptics who were demeaned and ignored. And despite the constant, ongoing deaths of women.
There is no shortage of other examples. In the 1920s in America, tens of thousands of people, mostly poor, were dying of a disease called pellagra. The consensus of scientists said it was infectious, and what was necessary was to find the “pellagra germ.” The US government asked a brilliant young investigator, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, to find the cause. Goldberger concluded that diet was the crucial factor. The consensus remained wedded to the germ theory.
Goldberger demonstrated that he could induce the disease through diet. He demonstrated that the disease was not infectious by injecting the blood of a pellagra patient into himself, and his assistant. They and other volunteers swabbed their noses with swabs from pellagra patients, and swallowed capsules containing scabs from pellagra rashes in what were called “Goldberger’s filth parties.” Nobody contracted pellagra.
The consensus continued to disagree with him. There was, in addition, a social factor-southern States disliked the idea of poor diet as the cause, because it meant that social reform was required. They continued to deny it until the 1920s. Result-despite a twentieth century epidemic, the consensus took years to see the light.
Probably every schoolchild notices that South America and Africa seem to fit together rather snugly, and Alfred Wegener proposed, in 1912, that the continents had in fact drifted apart. The consensus sneered at continental drift for fifty years. The theory was most vigorously denied by the great names of geology-until 1961, when it began to seem as if the sea floors were spreading. The result: it took the consensus fifty years to acknowledge what any schoolchild sees.
And shall we go on? The examples can be multiplied endlessly. Jenner and smallpox, Pasteur and germ theory. Saccharine, margarine, repressed memory, fiber and colon cancer, hormone replacement therapy. The list of consensus errors goes on and on.
Finally, I would remind you to notice where the claim of consensus is invoked. Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2. Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way.
Related:
The notion of a monolithic “science,” meaning what scientists say, is pernicious and the notion of “scientific consensus” actively so. The route to knowledge is transparency in disagreement and openness in debate. The route to truth is the pluralist expression of conflicting views in which, often not as quickly as we might like, good ideas drive out bad. There is no room in this process for any notion of “scientific consensus.” From John Kay’s 2007 op-ed “Science is the pursuit of the truth, not consensus“:
Objection A: You are advocating for science denial,
Objection E - Let's argue the data, then instead of seeking to use "scientific consensus on climate change" as justification alone to be skeptical of anthropogenic climate change. Here is my first argument with supporting data: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Objection F - Your last line seems to indicate that you don’t think experts came to a consensus from arguing the data and following the evidence where it led, and I would love to know why you think that.
Here’s what Michael Crichton had to say about “scientific consensus” back in 2003 when he gave a lecture at the California Institute of Technology titled “Aliens Cause Global Warming”:
I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.
Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus.
In addition, let me remind you that the track record of the "consensus" is nothing to be proud of. Let’s review a few cases. In past centuries, the greatest killer of women was fever following childbirth. One woman in six died of this fever. In 1795, Alexander Gordon of Aberdeen suggested that the fevers were infectious processes, and he was able to cure them. The consensus said no.
In 1843, Oliver Wendell Holmes claimed puerperal fever was contagious, and presented compelling evidence. The consensus said no.
In 1849, Semmelweiss demonstrated that sanitary techniques virtually eliminated puerperal fever in hospitals under his management. The consensus said he was a Jew, ignored him, and dismissed him from his post. There was in fact no agreement on puerperal fever until the start of the twentieth century. Thus, the consensus took one hundred and twenty-five years to arrive at the right conclusion despite the efforts of the prominent “skeptics” around the world, skeptics who were demeaned and ignored. And despite the constant, ongoing deaths of women.
There is no shortage of other examples. In the 1920s in America, tens of thousands of people, mostly poor, were dying of a disease called pellagra. The consensus of scientists said it was infectious, and what was necessary was to find the “pellagra germ.” The US government asked a brilliant young investigator, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, to find the cause. Goldberger concluded that diet was the crucial factor. The consensus remained wedded to the germ theory.
Goldberger demonstrated that he could induce the disease through diet. He demonstrated that the disease was not infectious by injecting the blood of a pellagra patient into himself, and his assistant. They and other volunteers swabbed their noses with swabs from pellagra patients, and swallowed capsules containing scabs from pellagra rashes in what were called “Goldberger’s filth parties.” Nobody contracted pellagra.
The consensus continued to disagree with him. There was, in addition, a social factor-southern States disliked the idea of poor diet as the cause, because it meant that social reform was required. They continued to deny it until the 1920s. Result-despite a twentieth century epidemic, the consensus took years to see the light.
Probably every schoolchild notices that South America and Africa seem to fit together rather snugly, and Alfred Wegener proposed, in 1912, that the continents had in fact drifted apart. The consensus sneered at continental drift for fifty years. The theory was most vigorously denied by the great names of geology-until 1961, when it began to seem as if the sea floors were spreading. The result: it took the consensus fifty years to acknowledge what any schoolchild sees.
And shall we go on? The examples can be multiplied endlessly. Jenner and smallpox, Pasteur and germ theory. Saccharine, margarine, repressed memory, fiber and colon cancer, hormone replacement therapy. The list of consensus errors goes on and on.
Finally, I would remind you to notice where the claim of consensus is invoked. Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2. Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way.
Related:
The notion of a monolithic “science,” meaning what scientists say, is pernicious and the notion of “scientific consensus” actively so. The route to knowledge is transparency in disagreement and openness in debate. The route to truth is the pluralist expression of conflicting views in which, often not as quickly as we might like, good ideas drive out bad. There is no room in this process for any notion of “scientific consensus.” From John Kay’s 2007 op-ed “Science is the pursuit of the truth, not consensus“:
Reply: No, I am advocating for critical thinking. Simply saying "the consensus of the experts say x" isn't critical thinking - Don't blindly follow anything. Educate yourself, argue the data, follow the argument wherever it leads.
Objection B: What are the experts basing their opinions on?
Reply: That's the question. If you have read and understood what they were saying, one should never rely on the Consensus of the Experts Fallacy.
Objection C: I would rather go with the majority of experts than go with the minority.
Reply: That is an intellectually dead way of "thinking".
Objection D: As a layman, consensus is proxy evidence due to the fact I am not capable of evaluating the evidence myself.
Reply: Then you probably should be engaged in discussions, just say that you are not intellectually capable of evaluating the evidence.
Reply: You missed the point of the post, as I noted this isn't a discussion about global warming, but the misuse of the "Consensus of the Experts" in discussions. But for an alternate view of the climate crisis, you can click here
Reply: Or with a better explanation of the current data. But here’s the thing, simply citing the expert consensus isn't data driven. If you've read and understood why the experts says X, then you should make that argument instead of citing their consensus.
Objection H - Then we can dismiss anything that more than three religious scholars agree on? Good to know.
Reply: I didn't say anything about dismissing scholars; I said get down into the data and their arguments.....
Objection K - This all screams as an excuse to dismiss this consensus rather than put the work in ot actually takes to challenge the consensus in the academic community.
Reply: First, if I have the data, evidence, and argument, and critically examine them, why would I need a scholarly consensus?
Objection H - Then we can dismiss anything that more than three religious scholars agree on? Good to know.
Reply: I didn't say anything about dismissing scholars; I said get down into the data and their arguments.....
Objection I - Consensus of the experts isn’t the evidence. The evidence is why the experts agree, generally. Experts don’t say "it’s true because we agree"—they say it’s true because of XYZ.
Reply: But that not how some play it. They find a consensus and cite it sans any sort of examination. They can't or won't evaluate the data, they can't or won't think critically, they can't or won't come to a conclusion other than what the experts have said.
Objection J - If you didn't want people to make the connection that you were a climate change denier, you shouldn't have referenced it
Reply: Yes, I considered changing that, but I thought that post was clearly about the misuse of scholarly consensus, it wouldn't be a problem. Then I thought it would be fun to see how many thought I was denying science or climate change. Turns out, it's a lot!
Objection K - This all screams as an excuse to dismiss this consensus rather than put the work in ot actually takes to challenge the consensus in the academic community.
Reply: Except I said the exact opposite: Don't blindly follow anything. Educate yourself, argue the data, follow the argument wherever it leads.
Objection L - Consensus kind of is evidence as far as you the layman is concerned, lest you throw expert knowledge in the bin and give in to the Dunning Kruger effect. Now of course it isn't "proof" and is in no way a winning argument, but it can certainly be used in conjunction with the supporting evidence that lead to the consensus in the first place.
Objection L - Consensus kind of is evidence as far as you the layman is concerned, lest you throw expert knowledge in the bin and give in to the Dunning Kruger effect. Now of course it isn't "proof" and is in no way a winning argument, but it can certainly be used in conjunction with the supporting evidence that lead to the consensus in the first place.
Reply: First, if I have the data, evidence, and argument, and critically examine them, why would I need a scholarly consensus?
Secondly, to simply accuse someone you disagree with as experiencing the Dunning Kruger effect isn't the same sas showing that thier understandingg of an issue is incorrect. It's basically an ad hominem attack.
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