Here is a summary of the academic paper "Josephus Misdated the Census of Quirinius" by John H. Rhoads (published in JETS, March 2011).
The Core ThesisRhoads argues that the famous contradiction between the Gospel of Luke and the historian Josephus regarding the date of the Census of Quirinius is real, but that Josephus is the one who is mistaken, not Luke.
Most historians assume Josephus is correct in dating the census to 6 AD (ten years after Herod the Great's death), which makes Luke’s claim that Jesus was born during the census and during the reign of Herod (c. 4 BC) historically impossible. Rhoads argues that Josephus accidentally "double-counted" a single event, placing it once in 4 BC and again in 6 AD.
We know the Luke was very accurate as a historian on many obscure details (titles of officials, geography, local customs) in the book of Acts, suggesting he should be given the benefit of the doubt here over the inconsistent Josephus.
Josephus has inaccuracy issues as a historian
Here are the most significant examples where historians (secular and religious) agree that Josephus likely got dates or timelines wrong.
1. The "Tobiad Romance" (Off by ~60 years)
This is considered one of his clumsiest chronological errors. Josephus tells the saga of the Tobiad family (influential Jewish tax collectors) and sets it during the reign of Ptolemy V (c. 200–180 BC).
The details of the story (tax farming system, political alliances) only make sense historically if they happened much earlier, under Ptolemy III (c. 240 BC). Historians believe Josephus was using a popular folk tale or "family romance" as a source and simply didn't know where to plug it into the official timeline, so he guessed—and missed by about 60 years.
2. Nehemiah and Xerxes (The Persian Mix-up)
In Antiquities of the Jews, Josephus dates the biblical governor Nehemiah to the reign of Xerxes (died 465 BC).
The Bible (and established Persian chronology) places Nehemiah under Artaxerxes I (reigned 465–424 BC). This creates a timeline compression that messes up the dates for the rebuilding of Jerusalem's walls. Josephus likely confused the Persian names (a common error in antiquity).
3. The Death of Herod (Internal Contradiction)
Josephus gives contradictory math regarding when Herod the Great died.
- In Antiquities: He says Herod reigned 37 years from his appointment by Rome (40 BC), which puts his death in 4 or 3 BC.
- In The Jewish War: He says Herod reigned 37 years from capturing Jerusalem (37 BC), which would put his death in 1 BC or 1 AD.
- This internal conflict is the fuel for the debate over Jesus' birth year. If Herod died in 1 BC, the "1946/Quirinius" conflict might disappear entirely.
4. John the Baptist’s Execution (Chronological Shift)
Josephus records the execution of John the Baptist, but the context implies a date that conflicts with the Gospels.
Josephus's Timeline: He links John's death to the defeat of Herod Antipas by King Aretas, which happened around 36 AD.
The Problem: If John died in 36 AD, he would have died after Jesus (who was crucified c. 30–33 AD). The Gospels clearly state John was executed before Jesus died.
The Likely Error: Most scholars think Josephus grouped John's death with the Aretas war legally/theologically (implying the defeat was God's punishment for the execution) rather than chronologically.
5. Impossible Numbers (The Exaggeration Habit)
While not a "date," this highlights his looseness with facts.
Josephus claims the rural region of Galilee had over 3 million inhabitants (modern estimates suggest fewer than 300,000).
Josephus claims 1.1 million people died during the siege of 70 AD. Tacitus (a Roman historian) estimated the total besieged population was only 600,000.
Josephus is generally reliable for the broad strokes of history (who was king, who fought whom), but he is notorious for being sloppy with specific years. He often "patches" different sources together without checking if the timelines match, leading to duplications and transpositions. and thus, it is historically probable that Quirinius conducted a census in 4 BC (under the nickname Sabinus or simply misdated by Josephus) and that the rebellion associated with it happened then. Therefore, Luke’s account of Jesus being born during a census under Herod the Great may be historically accurate.
Rhoads' Arguments
1. The "Three Judases" are One Person
Josephus describes three different rebellion leaders named "Judas" active around this time. Rhoads argues these are likely three differing accounts of the same man leading the same revolt in 4 BC.
Judas, son of Sepphoris (4 BC): Raided the royal armory in Galilee.
Judas, son of Saripheus (4 BC): Called for the removal of the Roman eagle from the temple; was burned alive by Herod.
Judas the Galilean (6 AD): Led a famous tax revolt against the Census of Quirinius.
The Evidence: Rhoads notes that it is historically improbable that three different revolutionary leaders with the same name, operating in the same regions, would all clash with the same High Priest (Joazar) at different times. He concludes these are duplicate records of a single tax revolt that occurred in 4 BC.
2. The Problem of High Priest Joazar
Josephus records that the High Priest Joazar was deposed (removed) by the Roman governor Quirinius after the census in 6 AD. However, Josephus also records that Joazar was High Priest when Herod died in 4 BC.
It is unlikely that Joazar was deposed in 6 AD if he had already been removed from power by Herod's son Archelaus in 4 BC.
]If the census actually happened in 4 BC, then Joazar’s removal by Quirinius and his removal during the transition of power after Herod’s death are the same event.
3. Sabinus = Quirinius
Josephus mentions a Roman official named Sabinus who was in Judea in 4 BC (right after Herod's death) to secure Herod's estate and conduct a financial accounting for Caesar. Rhoads suggests that "Sabinus" is not a separate person but a nickname or cognomen for Quirinius. Quirinius was from the town of Lanuvium (a Sabine town) and had the nickname "The Sabine."
Thus, if Sabinus is Quirinius, then Josephus actually does place Quirinius in Judea in 4 BC, conducting a financial registration—exactly as Luke 2:2 claims.
4. Presence of Coponius
Normally, historians place Coponius in Judea starting in 6 AD, when he was appointed as the first Roman Prefect following the removal of Herod Archelaus. However, the video and the scholar John Rhoads argue that historical traces place him there much earlier, supporting the idea that the census occurred during the reign of Herod the Great (c. 5–4 BC).
The core of this argument relies on a textual detail in Josephus's Antiquities of the Jews (Book 17, Chapter 5). In roughly 5 BC, Herod the Great put his son Antipater on trial for treason before a Roman council. Some manuscripts and scholarly reconstructions of this passage mention a Roman official named Coponius being present at this trial.
Thus, if Coponius was historically present in Judea in 5 BC assisting with Roman administrative/legal matters, it contradicts the idea that he first arrived in 6 AD.
The problem for Josephus is that he explicitly states that Coponius arrived alongside Quirinius to administer the province and conduct the census. Thus, it's likely that they both arrived in 6 AD to liquidate Archelaus's estate.
If the "Coponius" at the trial in 5 BC is the same man, it suggests the "Quirinius & Coponius" team was actually active in Judea during Herod's reign. This supports the theory that Josephus took a single event (the arrival of Quirinius/Sabinus and Coponius in 4 BC) and accidentally duplicated it, placing it ten years later in 6 AD.
Luke's account vindicated
Conclusion
Rhoads concludes that Josephus, working from multiple conflicting sources, mistakenly split one event (the 4 BC tax revolt) into two separate events spaced ten years apart. Therefore, Luke’s account of a census under Herod the Great is historically plausible and likely accurate.
